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Claireification: What Trump winning the Iowa caucus could mean for 2024 election

Donald Trump is taking the lead by winning in the Iowa caucuses, setting him up for a 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Unfortunately, the former president’s involvement with the Jan. 6 Insurrection could hold him back from success. 

Iowa is the first state to hold a presidential nominating contest in 2024, according to CBS News. The state sets a precedent for which political candidates could win their parties’ nomination for president. Iowa holds caucuses, rather than primaries; this means Iowa’s parties run the nomination process, rather than the state overall.

The Associated Press reports Trump took home the most votes, with Republican candidates Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley following with much lower numbers. It seems that the former president is shaping up for a rematch against incumbent Joe Biden. 

Some states are taking action to avoid this election deja vu. It all began with the Dec. 19 Colorado Supreme Court ruling declaring Trump ineligible for the presidency under the U.S. Constitution’s insurrection clause and removing him from the state’s presidential primary ballot. According to the Associated Press, the ruling had been controversial as Democrat governors appointed the justices who made the decision. 

It is still unclear what the result of this ruling will be, as The New York Times reports the U.S. Supreme Court plans to hear an appeal of the ruling with arguments scheduled for Feb. 8. It’s worth noting Trump’s name will still appear on Colorado’s primary ballots. It’s unclear how the appeal will result based on the current U.S. Supreme Court justices and their past rulings. 

Once this decision was made, though, other states began to follow in Colorado’s footsteps. Maine is in the same place as Colorado — waiting for the Supreme Court decision — following a declaration from Maine’s secretary of state on Dec. 28, as reported by CBS News

Challenges are pending at different court levels in Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Many other states have tried to start movements, but these challenges were dismissed. Ohio has not come into the conversation at all yet.

If Trump is to be removed from the ballot in some states, this could mean he would be unable to gain enough votes to win the presidency. In light of this, the Republican party may choose to go with another candidate, like Haley or DeSantis. 

As the country waits to hear from the U.S. Supreme Court, Haley and DeSantis will continue to battle for runner-up in the New Hampshire primary, which follows the Iowa caucuses. Reuters reports the Jan. 23 primary could see different results from those in Iowa based on voter demographics. 

Although the 2024 election is months away, the country will see results in primaries and caucuses that could determine the presidential candidates now. This unprecedented process could mean wildly different futures for the American people and will be worth a watch as Feb. 8 approaches.

Claire Schiopota is a senior studying journalism. Please note that the opinions expressed in this column do not reflect those of The Post. Want Claire to cover a certain topic or talk about her column? Email her at cs123719@ohio.edu or tweet her @CSchiopota

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