Only six of the Mid-American Conference’s 12 teams get the opportunity each season to compete following the finish of the regular season. Ohio (14-13, 10-6 MAC) has spent the last handful of weeks fighting tooth and nail for one of those six spots.
Entering last Friday and Saturday’s matchups against Buffalo (14-15, 10-6 MAC), it was an uphill climb. Even further back, coming off an Oct. 22 win against Kent State — which had yet to win a MAC game — Ohio was staring down nine more games, eight of which against teams that outranked it.
Ohio has since completed seven of those nine games, holding a 5-2 record over the span, which includes the team's current three-game winning streak. Most recently, a sweep of Buffalo has put Ohio in the No. 5 spot.
However, the Bobcats’ spot is far from secure. There are two scenarios in which Ohio could find itself out of the MAC Tournament by the end of next weekend.
In a worst-case scenario, Ohio loses out against Bowling Green and finishes the season with a 14-15 record, including a 10-8 in-conference record. Although it would be a disappointing end to the regular season, it would be far from an impossibility for Ohio to still make the postseason.
The only teams that could jump Ohio are Buffalo and Toledo (15-13, 8-8 MAC). If only one of these teams jumps Ohio, the team remains in the tournament. However, there’s a solid chance both could win out.
Buffalo finishes its season with a doubleheader against Eastern Michigan, which ranks No. 8 in the conference. If Ohio loses both against Bowling Green, Buffalo would need just one win against EMU to regain the No. 5 seed.
For Toledo, with a 1-1 record against Ohio and a better overall record, a 2-0 record to finish out the season would push it past Ohio. Toledo’s final two matches will be played against Kent State, the MAC’s worst team with a 2-24 overall record.
For Ohio to drop out of the tournament, it would have to lose out against Bowling Green, Buffalo would have to win just one match of its two against Eastern Michigan, and Toledo would have to win out against Kent State.
If Ohio can secure its 11th conference victory in one of its two matches against Bowling Green, which has just two in-conference losses this season, the team clinches a spot in the postseason.
The set of circumstances is in Ohio’s favor, but its destiny is not fully within its control. If the team loses out, there’s still a chance it makes the tournament, but each remaining game will have the team waiting with anticipation.
