The 2024 NFL season has returned to the lives of football-loving people across the planet, and the three-week mark has already been reached. However, as the beginning of every season entails, some dedicated fans love to analyze every recorded stat and trend across the league to determine what separates specific teams from others.
Already, an early trend is dominating NFL discourse: the league-wide decrease in passing yard totals and passing attempts. The comparisons are stark when looking back at passing trends from only a few years ago.
Through two weeks of the 2021 NFL season, the league had over 13 quarterbacks eclipse 550 yards of passing, and Derek Carr led the way with 819 yards. 2024 features only one quarterback to reach 550 yards, Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers, per CBS Sports on X, formerly Twitter.
During the season's first three weeks, offenses have been putting up fewer raw numbers than a year ago. As Mark Maske of the Washington Post explained on X, NFL offenses have combined for 42.3 points, 402.5 passing yards, and 238.1 rushing yards per game. Both points and passing yards have decreased from the 2023 season, with averages of 45 points and 443.5 passing yards, respectively.
The only increase was in rushing yards per game, which rose from a 221.4-yard total in 2023. Total rushing yards and rushing touchdowns have also increased over the past three seasons, marking a notable increase in success for running backs.
Offensive numbers have been down and have remained down in subsequent weeks as the quarter-way mark in the NFL season approaches. What many are asking, though, is why?
The advent of the two high-safety schemes has become a dominant tool for NFL defenses. Increases in Cover Two, Cover Four and Cover Six defensive packages have forced quarterbacks to throw more short routes, emphasize efficiency and take fewer deep shots down the field than previous years more easily allowed.
The rise in using two high-safety schemes since 2019 has successfully impacted offensive production. In the five years since the 2019 season, the usage of two high defenses rose from 44% to 63%. Average air yards per pass attempt have dropped to 7.7 yards, which, if it holds, would be the lowest total amount in over ten years and over one yard shorter than the 2019 average, per NFL Football Operations.
NFL defenses have risen to match the high-flying pace of offenses in the past decade, as shown in the first three weeks. However, NFL offenses have also become notably younger, putting enormous expectations on freshly drafted prospects and hoping to quickly compete for a championship before a young quarterback reaches the end of his rookie deal.
The average age of starting quarterbacks entering the 2023 season was 27, the lowest total in over 50 years, and the average did not rise much entering the 2024 season. A modern belief for many teams is that obtaining a young quarterback will allow for the most time to develop and provide a more fruitful peak for the athlete. This belief, combined with the financial flexibility afforded to teams for having quarterbacks on rookie deals, makes the benefit all the more desirable to NFL clubs.
A recently successful NFL club, the San Francisco 49ers, bears witness to this strategy. The 49ers are fresh off a Super Bowl LVIII appearance in which their starting quarterback, Brock Purdy, had a base salary of $870,000, making him the 40th highest-paid player on the team for the 2023 season, per data from Spotrac. This allows the 49ers immense cap flexibility for a multi-year period before Purdy's extension comes due.
Whether the emphasis should be placed on evolving NFL defenses or the youthfulness of modern NFL offenses, the NFL is witnessing a revolution of playstyle through a few weeks of play. The NFL is evolving into a well-balanced league where not just prioritizing an explosive offense will likely guarantee victory.
Ben Wilk is a senior studying journalism and sports management. Please note that the views and opinions of the columnists do not reflect those of The Post. Want to talk more about it? Let Ben know by emailing him at bw327020@ohio.edu
