As Mid-American Conference play heats up, Ohio is in a predicament. The Bobcats are 1-3 in conference play, and two of their losses are at home.
The Bobcats could easily be 2-2, and even 3-1 in league action, but they aren’t. Now, they’re staring at a final two months that will determine a lot about the trajectory of the program.
Through a couple weeks of conference games, some points can be made.
Let’s break down the outlook of the MAC as of Jan. 16:
Let’s be clear from the beginning: Buffalo is by far and away in a class of its own. The Bulls currently sit at No. 16 in the latest AP Poll, and that’s well-deserved. They went on the road in November and beat West Virginia in overtime. They went on the road and earned a double-digit win over a Syracuse team that just beat Duke on the road. The Bulls’ only loss is on the road against the class of the Big East, Marquette.
Buffalo is 14th in the NCAA’s new ranking system, NET, which ranks teams based on a number of things including game results, location, efficiency, margin of victory and quality of wins and losses. Talk of the MAC earning two bids is picking up steam, and rightfully so.
“It’s a very level playing field, probably with the exception of Buffalo, out there right now,” coach Saul Phillips said.
But can anyone beat the Bulls in the MAC Tournament and make it a two-bid conference? Well, after Buffalo, the league has as much parity as it has in quite some time.
The coaches in the conference know that, too.
“This conference is so, I don’t want to use the word ‘balanced’ because I don’t know that that’s the word, but it’s just a very competitive league,” Kent State coach Rob Senderoff said after the Golden Flashes beat Ohio on Tuesday night. “If you don’t play well, whether you’re home or away, you’re going to struggle. That hasn’t always been the case.”
Parity isn’t a bad thing; it might even be an overused word that doesn’t mean a lot. But in the MAC, that term takes on a new meeting. Road teams are winning at a historic clip through the first two weeks of conference play. Anyone can win.
Conference standings may reflect that.
Bowling Green is hot right now. The Falcons have won eight straight games, and they’re a surprising 4-0 in conference play under coach Michael Huger. Northern Illinois is 3-0 in conference play, and of course, Buffalo is undefeated in the league. The other nine teams each have a loss already. Eight have at least two losses.
The MAC could be a race for second place as long as Buffalo continues on its pace. And that race is wide open.
“There are a lot of teams that have really good players on them,” Phillips said. “On a given night, you don’t know what’s going to happen.”
For the Bobcats, they’ve had their chances early in MAC play. They hosted NIU to open the new year, and they had a big lead but blew it in the second half and lost in overtime. On the road, where the Bobcats have struggled all season, they hung around with Bowling Green for 30 minutes, but wore down in the final 10 minutes and lost.
Those problems seemed to be corrected in Saturday’s blowout win over Ball State in Muncie, Indiana. Ohio went on the road and defeated one of the better teams in the MAC. It moved the ball well and allowed only 52 points. Everything seemed to click.
Then there was Tuesday against Kent State, when Ohio faced an early deficit, never seemed to have enough energy and, after tying the game in the second half, was destroyed down the stretch.
It’s been a frustrating start to conference play for the Bobcats. The downs have far outweighed the ups. And it’s been four games. There is plenty of time to recover, but it needs to happen quickly.
Ohio’s upcoming schedule includes a trip to Savage Arena to play Toledo, rematches with Ball State and NIU, and a marquee matchup with former coach John Groce and Akron. If Ohio can get through those five games with a winning record, the Bobcats will find themselves in good standing in the league. If they continue to struggle, however, things could go south in a hurry.
The bottom line for the remainder of conference play is simple. If any team can find a way to upset Buffalo, the MAC will be a two-bid league. If not, the Bulls will run through the next two months with ease and likely make an NCAA Tournament run, while everyone else finds solace in making other postseason tournaments.
