The exciting 2017 season has brought about many breakout rookie stars.
From the City that Never Sleeps to the City of Angels, Major League Baseball has been blessed with a wide variety of young talent. Because they are so fresh into the big leagues, however, the questions begs to be asked, "can they sustain their excellence?"
From examining some of baseball's most intricate and detailed stats, we — the die-hard fans of baseball — can see into these rookie's futures. Are they bound to drop off the face of baseball? Or are they just scratching the surface of their stardom?
The two most notable rookies have clearly been Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger. Both have proven to be of extreme value to their own teams.
Let's see if their respected team should expect this to continue.
Cody Bellinger: 5.65 WAR weighted to 162 games
Cody Bellinger is the new star of the Los Angeles Dodgers and he has impressed both fans and MLB players with his beautiful swing. Looking from the outside, he seems to be a fantastic baseball player. The stats tell the same story: He truly is one of the best players in baseball.
Combined with extreme athleticism and pure strength, Bellinger dominates at the dish. His hard ball percentage ranks 5th in the MLB at 45 percent (15 points above league average), while his feet per second is higher than Mike Trout's. Hard ball percentage is the percentage of batted balls that are classified as "hard speed."
Thanks to his strength with the bat, balls just seem to fly out of the park at astonishing rate of
27 percent for his home run per fly ball ratio. His BABIP (batting average on balls put into play) is slightly below league average at .292, but is understandable with his upper-cut swing and tendency to pull every batted ball.
Due to his speed and quickness, he's already accumulated a respectable defensive runs saved total of 10 at numerous positions. As long as he keeps his strength in his swing and doesn't lose his foot speed (in other words — no major injuries), he will be a dangerous weapon at the plate and a useful asset in the field.
The only major concern for Bellinger is his strike out rate. His K percentage is five percentage points above league average. And although he seems to make up for his swings and misses with a respectable walk rate of 10.9 percent, his contact percentage is a poor 70 percent (seven points below league average). If he starts to strike out consistently, it may be a concern for the Dodger faithful. Strike outs are frustrating to watch — just ask Aaron Judge fans.
Aaron Judge: 6.9 WAR weighted to 162 games
"All Rise," screams Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay as the 6-foot-7, 275 pound giant rounds the bases. Judge was must-see television in the first half of the MLB season. Since a week before the All-Star break, however, he had a huge landslide in production — highlighted by his strike out streak of 37 consecutive games.
So what should Yankee fans expect out of Aaron Judge in the future?
To figure out what to expect in the future, let's dissect what went wrong. From April 2nd to June 30th, Judge accumulated an OPS of 1.138. Over a full year, that would have been the highest OPS seen since Barry Bonds in 2004.
Over those three months, his hard hit ball percentage was an incredible 48 percent, which led to his HR/FB (Home Run/Fly Ball) ratio nearing 40 percent.
Thanks to his great start, Judge compiled a BABIP of .413. But despite the preceding outrageous numbers, the two most important percentages to take note of are his K percentage and his IFFB (in field fly ball percentage).
The home run derby curse? Not for Judge. He started slumping in early July.
Giancarlo Stanton seems to be doing just fine. Looking back at Judge's minor league career, his K percentage and IFFB percentage mirrored his second half performance, which saw his K percentage and IFFB percentage rise eight and 13 percent, respectively.
Another red flag thrown up is a potential left shoulder issue. Reporters have seen him icing the shoulder consistently after games, while the Yankees have given him strange rest days. It's fair to assume his left shoulder could be bothering him, forcing him to swing an upper-cut swing.
Even if Judge keeps up his K percentage and IFFB percentage, he's still 2nd in both walk percentage and HR/FB percentage. Combined with his large amount of strike outs and pop outs with walks and home runs, and you get a solid hitter.
He's also proven to be a very good defender in the outfield with eight defensive runs saved. Judge has the highest upside of any player in baseball, thanks to his strength and speed. If he can put everything together, he has the potential to be the best player in baseball — yes, the potential to be better than Mike Trout.
